Kevin Hassett regains lead over Kevin Warsh on prediction markets in neck-and-neck Fed chairman race

Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are in a neck-and-neck race for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve – with the lead altering palms on prediction markets a number of instances this week.

Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, regained the top spot on Kalshi and Polymarket on Tuesday as he pleaded his case for the job.

The Fed’s “independence is really, really important, and the voices of the other people at the [Federal Open Market Committee], they’re important, too,” Hassett told CNBC on Tuesday.

Kevin Warsh briefly pulled ahead in prediction markets on Monday as President Trump’s seemingly decide to steer the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg through Getty Images

He said he doesn’t imagine Trump will disqualify candidates for being “a close friend.”

As of Tuesday afternoon on Kalshi, about 53% of bettors positioned their odds on Hassett clinching the nomination. Some 34% said Warsh, a former Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, would seemingly get the title.

By the same time on Polymarket, merchants noticed 54% odds of Hassett profitable the nomination and 36% for Warsh. Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also racked up roughly 6% and a couple of% odds, respectively.

On Monday, Kalshi merchants had seen Warsh usurp Hassett’s longtime lead with a 46% probability of nomination as reviews swirled that top advisers are involved Hassett can be considered as too close to the president.

Bloomberg News reported last month that Hassett had emerged as the frontrunner in the race to succeed Powell – whom Trump has long railed against for not slashing rates of interest shortly enough.

Last week, Hassett’s odds on Kalshi had been as high as 77% and Warsh’s had been as low as 10% as the former was seen as a shoo-in.

But Wall Street titans, company CEOs and money managers have been urging the president not to pick Hassett – involved he’ll merely do Trump’s bidding instead of following tendencies in the bond markets, The Post beforehand reported.

Kevin Hassett told CNBC that the Fed’s “independence is really, really important.” AFP through Getty Images

Hassett has been making his case for the job, saying Tuesday that interest-rate choices must be based on “the facts and the data.”

Over the weekend, he told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that Trump’s opinion “would have no weight” in his choices as Fed chairman.

He added, however, that he thinks Trump has “very strong and well-founded views about what we ought to do,” and it’s up to the committee to vote in a different approach in the event that they reject these concepts.

The back-and-forth between Hassett and Warsh may clarify why interviews with potential candidates had been abruptly canceled in December. Trump announced last week that he could be launching the final round of interviews.

The president earlier told reporters he already knew who he would decide as Fed chairman – however during an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday, Trump said Warsh had shot to the top of his listing.

“I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both – I think the two Kevins are great,” he said. “I think there are a couple of other people that are great.”

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